Early in the spring semester of 2013, Cervone and D’Amour proposed a new project to measure performance value in the NBA. The nature of their idea was relatively simple, but the computation required to pull it off was not. Their core premise was this:
Maybe, they thought, they might find the elusive hot hand in free throw sequences, which would be unaffected by the shot selection that could muddy up the picture. Nope. The Boston Celtics' team statistician forked over the team's free throw logs, and GVT found nothing there, either. Sure, some players shot better after making one, but the difference wasn't statistically significant. In other words, any fluctuation around the mean was seen as purely random variation, not evidence of being "in the zone."
• Records, compiles, and analyzes data concerning recruitment, interviews, hires, transfers, promotions, and terminations to make appropriate recommendations as needed.
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In this study, the researchers wanted to test if they could manipulate a coin toss , and counter the gambler's fallacy by having the participant focus on the person tossing the coin. In contrast, they attempted to initiate the hot-hand fallacy by centering the participant's focus on the person tossing the coin as a reason for the streak of either heads or tails. In either case the data should fall in line with sympathetic magic , whereby they feel that they can control the outcomes of random events in ways that defy the laws of physics , such as being "hot" at tossing a specific randomly determined outcome.